oscar predictions

I've read several media pieces where the writer claimed this was a wide-open year for the Academy Awards. Well I don't agree. I think many of the major categories are pretty close to a sure thing, so here are my predictions. We'll see in a few days if I'm full of beans.

12 Years a Slave will win best picture. The most nominated film usually receives the award. Also, it's a big historical issue picture, another best picture magnet.

Alfonso Cuarón will win best director. The Academy tends to give this to the director of the movie perceived as the runner up contender for best picture.

Matthew McConaughey will win best actor. Male actors who transform themselves to play debilitated characters in issue movies are catnip for Academy voters. It's the Tom Hanks/Daniel Day Lewis rule.

Cate Blanchett will win best actress. The Academy is drawn to actresses who play troubled characters on the verge of a meltdown and make that character their own. It's the Meryl Streep rule.

Jared Leto will win best supporting actor. The Academy tends to favor actors in this category who never quite became leads but nonetheless have an impressive body of work before this stellar career-making role came along. It's the Cuba Gooding rule.

Lupita Nyong’o will win best supporting actress. The Academy often saves this award for a relative newcomer to mainstream Hollywood filmmaking. It's the Anna Paquin rule.

12 Years a Slave will win best adapted screenplay. It's often a consolation prize for big issue movies that win best picture but not many other major categories.

American Hustle will win best original screenplay. It's the sort of loud, showy story that appeals to older Academy voters, who are the largest voting block.

I also predict that when Blanchett wins, she'll say something particularly supportive and heartfelt about Woody Allen, which will set off a Mia Farrow-fueled media firestorm in the following week.

So time will tell if I'm a genius or a fool.