supreme court prediction

This is the time of year that major decisions are often announced by the U.S. Supreme Court. That's because their annual term is drawing to an end, and they have a predilection for announcing the important cases at the season's close.

I was looking at a statistical page on the excellent Scotus blog charting which important cases have yet to be decided. I noticed that Justice Anthony Kennedy has written the least number of opinions this term. That suggests he's been working on a big, important opinion that's taking up a lot of his time.

He's known to be a fence-sitter on some very important cases and will often cast the deciding vote in key 5-4 decisions. And one of the big decisions yet to be announced is the gay marriage ruling in the Obergefell v. Hodges case. Kennedy has written other important gay rights decisions in recent years, hopping off his fence to lead a 5-4 majority.

That has me speculating he's been busy writing the court's decision in the Obergefell case. So I'm predicting he'll be the deciding vote in a 5-4 ruling in favor of gay marriage, and he'll issue a long, detailed decision, which is what has been taking his time away from writing in other cases.

Time will tell if I am right or don't have a clue what I'm talking about. Of course the latter could well be the case, and I just happen to be right about this one. Stay tuned.