He came over for dinner recently and was talking about aliens, one of his favorite topics. He claims to have seen extraterrestrial craft here in the Outback, as have many people in Australia.
His current thesis holds that significant extraterrestrial visits are imminent, on the scale of Columbus discovering the New World, to use his metaphor. He is convinced that, within a few years, aliens will visit our planet and establish diplomatic relations of sorts, a la The Day the Earth Stood Still. As to what evidence he has that this will happen, all he can offer is along the lines of "I feel it in my gut."
I believe life exists on other planets. The probability that it doesn't is too small, considering the countless billions of stars out there. But I really don't believe aliens visit our planet secretly and refuse to make contact, or do so on a very limited basis through alien abductions.
I told our friend I think the chances that we'll be visited by intelligent alien life in our own lifetimes is close to zero. Recorded history stretches back close to 10,000 years, so why would extraterrestrials have any special reason to visit us now?
Of the innumerable planets out there with some kind of life form, how many of them have any species evolved more than microbes and lichen? How many have sentient creatures? And creatures that have some sort of communication system, like apes and dolphins? Now how many have species that are actually civilized, let alone to such a degree that they have recorded history and some kind of technology?
You can see where this is going. While there almost certainly is life, how many planets have life more advanced than ours? Sure, there are probably some, even those who can travel faster than the speed of light.
But why would they bother coming here? We're in a fairly remote part of the universe among sparsely situated stars, compared to other quadrants.
I think the chances of intelligent aliens visiting our planet are about the same as an extremely famous Earthling just deciding, out of the blue, to visit to a small town with a population under 100 in some remote corner of the globe. Yes, it could happen, but don't hold your breath waiting.