For the second time in four years, a New York man has won a million dollars in the state's lottery. The winner was given a symbolic check in a press conference yesterday.
This is not the first time a big winner has hit the jackpot a second time. A North Carolina woman won a million this February and then $250,000 last month. A Chicago man has won a million dollars twice in the last decade.
So are these people lucky? Or are these simply random events?
This is the one issue where my husband and I disagree 100 percent.
The New York lottery winner believes his late wife somehow intervened and gave him the "good luck" to win twice. That's the kind of feel-good malarkey that my James would believe in a heartbeat. He is a big believer in luck and lucky people.
I do not believe in good luck or bad luck. Life is a series of random events. On rare occasion, two events that each have a very small chance of happening can happen concurrently.
You can ask me to take a card, then shuffle the deck, and take a card again. There is a very small chance I will get the same card both times.
Now if you stop thousands of people in the street and do this card trick, the chance that someone will twice pick the same card increases. This is a basic rule of probability.
The New York lottery winner says he buys twenty lottery tickets
every day. He's spending thousands of dollars every year. In four years, he's spent tens of thousands of dollars.
While that doesn't mean it's a sure thing to win the lottery twice with a big jackpot, buying a lot of lottery tickets increases your odds, although they are still small.
I imagine there are quite a few people like him who spend a lot of money on lottery tickets and never win anyting substantial. So do those people have "bad luck"?
In my mind, this scenario would be bona fide "good luck": You buy a lottery ticket for the first time in your life and you win a jackpot worth hundreds of millions.
Years pass and you never buy another lottery ticket. Then, on the tenth anniversary of your big win, you buy the second lottery ticket you've ever bought in your life. And you win big again: hundreds of millions of dollars.
You do that, then I might believe in good luck. Until then, it's all random chance.